Risk assessment in railway rolling stock planning
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0016.2817Keywords:
railway rolling stock, transportation planning, risk assessment, risk impact estimation, Monte Carlo method, efficiencyAbstract
Rolling stock planning is one of the steps in the traffic planning process considered from the railway undertaking's point of view. It is directly related to the efficiency of rolling stock utilisation, which should be ensured at the highest possible level in the case of rail transport. The planning work stage is subject to certain risks (threats and opportunities), which, if they materialise, will impact it. It, therefore, makes sense to carry out analyses that can anticipate specific events in good time and introduce appropriate countermeasures in advance. This article aims to conduct a risk assessment process concerning rolling stock planning. It was assumed that the considerations were carried out based on the M_o_R (Management of Risk) methodology. Based on this methodology, risk identification and risk analysis (estimation of risk impact) were carried out. Risk assessment was carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The work identified sixteen risks that represent threats. The principle of risk description was used to identify risks. It requires indicating for each risk the reason for its occurrence and the effect it may have. As a part of risk estimation, variables were selected to assess each risk's impact on the objectives of the stage. Publicly available statistical data were used to define the variables. The variables were expressed in monetary units. The work identified five variables describing impact, which were assigned to the individual risks. As a triangular probability distribution was used for the variability of impact description, the variable's minimum, most likely, and maximum value was identified. A risk assessment was carried out for only two impact description variables (for those variables used to describe the impact of the most significant number of risks). For each variable, statistical parameters were indicated and analysed. The resulting value of the variable describing the impact was then read out for each percentile, and the expected value of the risk was calculated. A detailed risk assessment was made for the lower, middle and upper quartiles. A histogram of the incidence of each variable value was presented, and an assessment was made.
References
Alfieri, A., Groot, R., Kroon, L., Schrijver, A., (2006). Efficient Circulation of Railway Rolling Stock. Transportation Science, 40(3), 378-391.
Ambroziak, T., Piętka, R., (2008). Metoda komputerowego wspomagania wyznaczania harmonogramów pracy pojazdów trakcyjnych. Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport, 64, 13-18.
AXELOS Ltd., (2010). Zarządzanie ryzykiem. Przewodnik dla praktyków. Londyn: TSO.
Bałuch, H., (2007). Ryzyko w eksploatacji nawierzchni kolejowej. Problemy Kolejnictwa, 145, 5-28.
Baranovskyi, D., Muradian, L., Bulakh, M., (2021). The Method of Assessing Traffic Safety in Railway Transport. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (EES), 666, 042075.
Berrado, A., El-Koursi, E. M., Cherkaoui, A., Khaddour, M., (2010). A framework for risk management in railway sector: application to road-rail level crossings. The Open Transportation Journal, 5, 34-44.
Bester, L., Toruń, A., (2014). Modeling of reliability and safety at level crossing including in polish railway conditions. In J. Mikulski (eds.), Telematics - Support for Transport. TST 2014. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 38-47. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer.
Boholm, Å., (2010). On the organisational practice of expert-based risk management: A case of railway planning. Risk Management, 12(4), 235-255.
Budai, G., Maróti, G., Dekker, R., Huisman, D., Kroon, L., (2010). Rescheduling in passenger railways: the rolling stock rebalancing problem. Journal of Scheduling, 13, 281-297.
Burdzik, R., (2021). Epidemic Risk Analysis and Assessment in Transport Services. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Burdzik, R., Nowak, B., Rozmus, J., Słowiński, P., Pankiewicz, J., (2017). Safety in the railway industry. Archives of Transport, 44(4), 15-24.
Cacchiani, V., Caprara, A., Galli, L., Kroon, L., Maróti, G., Toth, P., (2012). Railway Rolling Stock Planning: Robustness Against Large Disruptions. Transportation Science, 46(2), 217-232.
Cadarso, L., Marín, Á., (2011). Robust rolling stock in rapid transit networks. Computers Operations Research, 38(8), 1131-1142.
Canca, D., Barrena, E., (2018). The integrated rolling stock circulation and depot location problem in railway rapid transit systems. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 109, 115-138.
Canca, D., Sabido, M., Barrena, E., (2014). A Rolling Stock Circulation Model for Railway Rapid Transit Systems. Transportation Research Procedia, 3, 680-689.
Caprara, A., Kroon, L., Monaci, M., Peeters, M., Toth, P., (2007). Passenger railway optimisation. In C. Barnhart, G. Laporte, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, 14, 129-187.
Celiński, I., Burdzik, R., Młyńczak, J., Kłaczyński, M., (2022). Research on the applicability of vibration signals for real-time train and track condition monitoring. Sensors, 22(6), 2368.
Chovančíková, N., Dvořák, Z., (2019). Effect of a power failure on rail transport. Transportation Research Procedia, 40, 1289-1296.
Chruzik, K., (2014). Wspólne metody bezpieczeństwa w transporcie kolejowym Europy-teoria i praktyka. TTS Technika Transportu Szynowego, 9, 23-30.
Cordeau, J.-F., Soumis, F., Desrosiers, J., (2001). Simultaneous Assignment of Locomotives and Cars to Passenger Trains. Operations Research, 49(4), 531-548.
European Commission Regulation 402/2013 z dnia 30 kwietnia 2013 r. w sprawie wspólnej metody oceny bezpieczeństwa w zakresie wyceny i oceny ryzyka i uchylające rozporządzenie (WE). 352/2009, 2013.
Fioole, P.-J., Kroon, L., Maróti, G., Schrijver, A., (2006). A rolling stock circulation model for combining and splitting of passenger trains. European Journal of Operational Research, 174(2), 1281-1297.
Flier, H., Nunkesser, M., Schachtebeck, M., Schöbel, A., (2008). Integrating Rolling Stock Circulation into the Delay Management Problem. Arrival Technical Report, 132.
Giacco, G., D'Ariano, A., Pacciarelli, D., (2014). Rolling Stock Rostering Optimisation Under Maintenance Constraints. Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 18, 95-105.
Gołębiowski, P., Jacyna, M., Stańczak, A., (2021). The Assessment of Energy Efficiency versus Planning of Rail Freight Traffic: A Case Study on the Example of Poland. Energies, 14(18), 5629.
Goossens, J. W., van Hoesel, S., Kroon, L., (2006). On solving multi-type railway line planning problems. European Journal of Operational Research, 168(2), 403-424.
Harrison, R., (2010). Introduction To Monte Carlo Simulation. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1204(1), 17-21.
Jacyna, M., Szaciłło, L., (2017). Wybrane aspekty zarządzania ryzykiem w transporcie kolejowym. Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport, 119.
Jacyna, M., Gołębiowski, P., Krześniak, M., Szkopiński, J., (2019). Organizacja ruchu kolejowego. Warszawa: PWN.
Karasiewicz, I., (2019). Identyfikacja zagrożeń związanych z czynnikiem ludzkim w systemie transportu kolejowego. Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport, 126, 39-47.
Kim, M., Wang, J., Park, C., Cho, Y., (2009). Development of the risk assessment model for railway level-crossing accidents by using the ETA and FTA. Journal of the Korean Society for Railway, 12(6), 936-943.
Kroon, L., Maróti, G., Nielsen, L., (2015). Rescheduling of Railway Rolling Stock with Dynamic Passenger Flows. Transportation Science, 49(2), 165-184.
Kukulski, J., Gołębiowski, P., Makowski, J., Jacyna-Gołda, I., Żak, J., (2021). Effective Method for Diagnosing Continuous Welded Track Condition Based on Experimental Research. Energies, 14, 1-23.
Kwaśnikowski, J., Gill, A., Gramza, G., (2011). Szacowanie stopnia strat ponoszonych przez przewoźników kolejowych w wyniku zdarzeń niepożądanych w ruchu kolejowym. TTS Technika Transportu Szynowego, 108.
Kycko, M., Zabłocki, W., (2017). Metody oceny ryzyka w procesach inwestycyjnych obejmujących wdrożenie systemów sterowania ruchem kolejowym (srk). Research Journal of the University of Gdańsk. Transport Economics and Logistics, 74, 269-277.
Kycko, M., Kukulski, J., Pawlik, M., (2021). Wyzwania związane z wprowadzeniem testów kompatybilności RSC i ESC. Zeszyty Naukowo-Techniczne Stowarzyszenia Inżynierów i Techników Komunikacji w Krakowie. Seria: Materiały Konferencyjne, 2(123), 229-241.
Lewiński, A., Toruń, A., Perzyński, T., (2011). Risk analysis as a basic method of safety transmission system certification. In J. Mikulski (eds.), Modern Transport Telematics. TST 2011. Communications in Computer and Information Science, 47-53. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer.
Liu, X., Dick, C. T., (2016). Risk-Based Optimisation of Rail Defect Inspection Frequency for Petroleum Crude Oil Transportation. Transportation Research Record, 2545(1), 27-35.
Mateu, J., Fernández, P., Franco, R., (2021). Setting safety foundations in the Hyperloop: A first approach to preliminary hazard analysis and safety assurance system. Safety Science, 142, 105366.
Michaelis, M., Schöbel, A., (2009). Integrating line planning, timetabling, and vehicle scheduling: a customer-oriented heuristic. Public Transport, 1, 211-232.
Mo, P., Yang, L., D’Ariano, A., Yin, J., Yao, Y., Gao, Z., (2020). Energy-Efficient Train Scheduling and Rolling Stock Circulation Planning in a Metro Line: A Linear Programming Approach. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 21(9), 3621-3633.
Office of Rail Transport., (2022, 06 22). Dane kolejowe. Retrieved from https://dane.utk.gov.pl/sts/.
Office of Rail Transport (2022b). Ekspertyza dotycząca praktycznego stosowania przez podmioty sektora kolejowego wymagań wspólnej metody bezpieczeństwa w zakresie
oceny ryzyka (CSM RA) opracowana w formie Przewodnika. Retrieved from https://www.utk.gov.pl/download/1/12494/UTKCSMRAfinal2.pdf.
Paś, J., Rosiński, A., Chrzan, M., Białek, K., (2020). Reliability-operational analysis of the LED lighting module including electromagnetic interference. IEEE Transactions on Electromagnetic Compatibility, 62(6), 2747-2758.
Peeters, M., Kroon, L., (2008). Circulation of railway rolling stock: a branch-and-price approach. Computers Operations Research, 35(2), 538-556.
PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A., (2020). Regulamin sieci 2021/2022. Warszawa: PKP Polskie Linie Kolejowe S.A.
PN-EN IEC 31010:2020-01 – Risk management – Risk assessment., (2020).
Semenov, I. i Jacyna, M., (2022). The synthesis model as a planning tool for effective supply chains resistant to adverse events. Eksploatacja i Niezawodność, 24, 140-152.
Sitarz, M., Chruzik, K., Banaszek, K., Raczyński, J., (2016). Uwarunkowania w planowaniu rozwoju pasażerskich zasobów taborowych kolejowych firm transportowych. Cześć 3-zarządzanie ryzykiem i bezpieczeństwo. TTS Technika Transportu Szynowego, 10, 43-47.
Smoczyński, P., Kadziński, A., (2016). Introduction to the risk management in the maintenance of railway tracks. Journal of Mechanical and Transport Engineering, 68(4), 65-80.
Stelmach, A., Góra, I., Zięba, M., (2022). Application of risk assessment methods in rail transport. WUT Journal of Transportation Engineering, 134, 7-16.
Structured Data LLC., (2022, 07 16). RiskAMP. Retrieved from https://www.riskamp.com/.
Szaciłło, L., Jacyna, M., Szczepański, E., Izdebski, M., (2021). Risk assessment for rail freight transport operations. Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability, 23(3), 476-488.
Szaciłło, L., Krześniak, M., Jasiński, D., Valis, D., (2022). The use of the risk matrix method for assessing the risk of implementing rail freight services. Archives of Transport, 64(4), 89-106.
Urbaniak, M., Kardas-Cinal, E., (2022). Optimisation of Train Energy Cooperation Using Scheduled Service Time Reserve. Energies, 15, 119.
Urząd Transportu Kolejowego., (2021a). Punktualność pociągów pasażerskich 2020. Warszawa: Urząd Transportu Kolejowego.
Urząd Transportu Kolejowego., (2021b). Sprawozdanie z funkcjonowania rynku transportu kolejowego 2020. Warszawa: Urząd Transportu Kolejowego.
Wang, Y., D’Ariano, A., Yin, J., Meng, L., Tang, T., Ning, B., (2018). Passenger demand oriented train scheduling and rolling stock circulation planning for an urban rail transit line. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 118, 193-227.
Wang, Y., Zhao, K., D’Ariano, A., Niu, R., Li, S., Luan, X., (2021). Real-time integrated train rescheduling and rolling stock circulation planning for a metro line under disruptions. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 152, 87-117.
Wolniewicz, Ł., (2019). Evaluation of train crews schedule in terms of robustness. Journal of Konbin, 49(1), 69-94.
Ying, C.-S., Chow, A., Chin, K.-S., (2020). An actor-critic deep reinforcement learning approach for metro train scheduling with rolling stock circulation under stochastic demand. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 140, 210-235.
Yuhua, Y., Marcella, S., Pacciarelli, D., Shaoquan, N., (2022). Train timetabling with passenger data and heterogeneous rolling stocks circulation on urban rail transit line. Soft Computing, 1-19. DOI: 10.1007/s00500-022-07057-0.
Zajac, M., Swieboda, J., (2015). Process hazard analysis of the selected process in intermodal transport. In V. Krivanek (eds.), International Conference on Military Technologies (ICMT) 2015, 1-7. Manhattan: IEEE.
Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych., (2022, 06 29). Przeciętne wynagrodzenie od 1950 r. Retrieved from https://www.zus.pl/baza-wiedzy/skladki-wskazniki-odsetki/wskazniki/przecietne-wynagrodzenie-w-latach.
Zhao, W., Martin, U., Cui, Y., Liang, J., (2017). Operational risk analysis of block sections in the railway network. Journal of Rail Transport Planning Management, 7(4), 245-262.
Zio, E., (2013). The Monte Carlo Simulation Method for System Reliability and Risk Analysis. London: Springer.
Zomer, J., Bešinović, N., de Weerdt, M., Goverde, R., (2021). The Maintenance Location Choice Problem for railway rolling stock. Journal of Rail Transport Planning Management, 20(100268).
Zou, P., Li, J., (2010). Risk identification and assessment in subway projects: case study of Nanjing Subway Line 2. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 1219-1238.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Archives of Transport journal allows the author(s) to hold the copyright without restrictions.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
