Optimizing Electric two-wheeler charging infrastructure under policy credibility constraints: An agent-based simulation of suburban transport corridors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61089/aot2026.z4akz712Keywords:
Electric two-wheeler adoption, Policy credibility, Agent-based modeling, Infrastructure saturation, Non-compensatory decision-makingAbstract
Inefficient sequencing of electric vehicle incentives and charging infrastructure investment can generate spatial redundancy in emerging-market transport systems. This study examines electric two-wheeler adoption in the Sleman-Bantul suburban transport corridor of Yogyakarta, Indonesia, where generous purchase subsidies and public charging expansion have not translated into significant market uptake. We develop a four-stage hybrid transport-planning framework combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, Classification and Regression Tree analysis, Agent-Based Modeling, and Genetic Algorithm optimization. Survey data from 1,362 suburban commuters were transformed into empirical agents and embedded in a geographically explicit OpenStreetMap-based commuting network to simulate 10-year diffusion under household charging constraints and dual home-work accessibility conditions. PLS-SEM identifies Policy Credibility as the strongest predictor of adoption intention, exceeding perceived economic value and infrastructure confidence. CART analysis reveals a non-compensatory threshold: commuters with a Policy Credibility index ≤ −0.46 are classified as late-market adopters regardless of economic or infrastructure advantages. The calibrated ABM shows that a Business-As-Usual scenario reaches only 10.94% adoption over ten years. Genetic Algorithm optimization identifies a resource-efficient infrastructure leverage point at 31 fast-charging units, achieving 53.35% adoption when combined with improved policy credibility, an IDR 9 million subsidy and 130 km battery range. Expanding the number of units from 31 to 46 raised the adoption rate by only 1.99 percentage points, indicating severe spatial saturation and overlapping charging catchments. These findings demonstrate that electric two-wheeler infrastructure planning in suburban transport corridors requires institutional credibility constraints to be incorporated before capital-intensive charging deployment. The study contributes a hybrid simulation-optimization framework for reducing fiscal misallocation and improving sustainable transport infrastructure planning.
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The data that support the findings of this study, including the anonymized survey dataset, the NetLogo 7.0.4 agent-based model code, and the BehaviorSearch optimization configuration files, are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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